Our Sun Has Reached ‘Solar Maximum’ And Northern Lights Will Now Spike

Oct 16, 2024

The night sky in Wisconsin glows with the Northern Lights as a geomagnetic storm brings vibrant pink ... [+] and green colors to a majority of the northern states. (Photo by Ross Harried/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The sun has reached “solar maximum” and it could last for the next year or longer, according to experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. That means a high possibility of more Northern Lights like the G4 geomagnetic storm that produced aurora across the world on Oct. 10-11 and a G5 geomagnetic storm on May 10-11 , the most severe in the past two decades, and possibly for 500 years.

“What we are currently experiencing from the sun indicates that the sun has reached the maximum phase of the solar cycle,” said Lisa Upton, co-chair, Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel and lead scientist, Southwest Research Institute, in a teleconference with reporters on Tuesday, Oct. 15. “There’s the potential at any phase of the solar cycle, but the frequency increases when you’re at the solar maximum phase,” she added. “We expect to be in that maximum phase for at least the next six months to a year — maybe even a little bit longer — so there’s definitely a higher probability of seeing those intense geomagnetic storms during that phase.”

The Northern Lights are caused by an intense geomagnetic storm, during which charged particles strike Earth’s magnetic field before accelerating down its magnetic field lines at the north and south poles to create ovals of green and red. Solar maximum — when the sun peaks in magnetic activity — brings an increased probability of significant geomagnetic storms.

Though the sun’s magnetic activity waxes and wanes over a roughly 11 year period, the current Solar Cycle 25 — which began in 2019 — looks set to be shorter than that. That means that solar maximum will likely last longer than usual, and likely produce frequent and powerful geomagnetic storms through 2026.

Longer solar cycles tend to be more sharply peaked and have a shorter maximum phase lasting only a year or two, said Upton, while shorter cycles are more prolonged, so their maximum phases last three or four years. In peaks similar the sun is experiencing right now, double or even triple peaks can feature.

Images from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory highlight the appearance of the Sun at solar minimum ... [+] (left, Dec. 2019) versus solar maximum (right, May 2024). These images are in the 171 wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light, which reveals the active regions on the Sun that are more common during solar maximum.

“This announcement doesn’t mean that this is the peak of solar activity we’ll see this solar cycle,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA, in a press release. “While the sun has reached the solar maximum period, the month that solar activity peaks on the sun will not be identified for months or years.” The uncertainty is because a consistent decline in solar activity after that peak has to be observed.

Solar maximum coming to an end in a year or so doesn’t mean a decline in Northern Lights. In fact the opposite is likely to be the case. “We’re two years into the maximum period, so we are anticipating another year or so of maximum phase before we really enter the declining phase, which will lead us back to solar minimum,” said Upton. “This period of solar decline is marked by a decreasing number of sunspots, but not necessarily by fewer impacts, even after the solar maximum.” The declining phase is notable for having very strong solar events.

“Inevitably, the days beyond this cycle will produce many more geomagnetic storms that will result in aurora being pretty far south,” said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

Solar activity is currently at a 23-year high. The sun produced an X9 solar flare — a sudden and intense burst of radiation from the sun — on Oct. 3, the biggest of Solar Cycle 25 so far.

The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel — an international panel of experts sponsored by NASA and NOAA — has worked together to make their prediction for the next solar cycle since 1989.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.

One Community. Many Voices. Create a free account to share your thoughts.

Our community is about connecting people through open and thoughtful conversations. We want our readers to share their views and exchange ideas and facts in a safe space.

In order to do so, please follow the posting rules in our site's Terms of Service. We've summarized some of those key rules below. Simply put, keep it civil.

Your post will be rejected if we notice that it seems to contain:

User accounts will be blocked if we notice or believe that users are engaged in:

So, how can you be a power user?

Thanks for reading our community guidelines. Please read the full list of posting rules found in our site's Terms of Service.